Here’s the headline: if the Iran deal holds, fuel costs will come down — gradually, over months, not overnight. If it collapses, Brent could be back above $110 within days. Either way, the answer is the same: you need to build pricing that works across the range of fuel price possibilities, with the ability to adjust in both directions as needed. 

The operators doing this well are not waiting for the market to give them permission — they are acting now.

TL;DR — The short version

• Trump says the Iran deal is "largely negotiated" — but Iran's state media pushed back, + key nuclear issues remain unresolved.
• Even if a deal is signed, the Strait does not reopen overnight — mines, ships, + insurance timelines mean gradual relief over 6–12 months at best.
• FedEx Freight goes independent on June 1 under ticker FDXF — the largest LTL carrier in North America competing on its own for the first time.
• Intermodal volumes are up 7.3% year-on-year — the mode-shift window is still open.
• Australia's RTCCO hit its first formal review hearing on May 25.
• There is a growing gap between what customers are hearing + what operators are experiencing.

I'm Shaun Hagen, CEO of CartonCloud. I've spent the last decade working with 3PLs, freight forwarders, and in-house logistics teams through fuel cycles, capacity crunches, and every wave of platform competition the category has thrown at them. 

This week, three things landed that hit operators where it matters: your fuel pricing decisions, your compliance exposure, and who you're up against in the market. None of them are waiting for the fuel crisis to ease before they start costing you money or share.

For the first time since the Hormuz crisis began in February, there is a genuine signal of hope. President Trump said the deal with Iran is "largely negotiated" and will be announced shortly, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets responded immediately — Brent dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time in weeks.

But Iran's state media pushed back, calling Trump's announcement incomplete and inconsistent with reality. The deal appears to be a memorandum of understanding as a first phase, with broader negotiations to follow over the next 30 to 60 days. Key issues around Iran's nuclear programme remain unresolved.

What does that mean for logistics operators this week? If I had to frame this week in one sentence: prepare for both outcomes, because you might need either one by next Tuesday.

Hope is not a plan — what the pending Iran deal means for your fuel model today

The potential of an Iran deal news is genuinely the most positive development since this crisis began. For the first time, both sides appear to be moving toward a framework that could lead to the Strait reopening.

But here is the practical reality. Even if a deal is signed this week, the Strait does not flip back to normal next week. As Aramco's CEO explained in last week’s episode — and Chevron's CEO echoed the same timeline — mines need to be cleared, stranded ships need to be repositioned, and insurance companies need to rebuild confidence in tanker voyages through the waterway. That takes months, not days.

So the planning reality for 3PL and freight operators looks like this:

• Best case: gradual fuel cost relief over the next 6–12 months as the Strait progressively reopens.
• Worst case: talks collapse, Iran's state media has already contested Trump's framing, and Brent is back above $110 within days.

What does that mean for you? The same discipline we have been talking about for weeks. Plan for the range, not the headline.

If you have been running your surcharge model on the assumption that fuel stays high permanently, do not immediately unwind it because one headline says hope. And if you have been running your model on the assumption that fuel will normalise soon, do not bet your margins on a deal that is not yet signed.

The operators doing this well are the ones with pricing that adjusts in both directions. When fuel drops, they can respond to customers quickly. When it climbs, they recover costs fast. 

It’s also worth mentioning that there is a growing expectation gap that operators need to manage directly. Customers hearing "deal close" are expecting immediate cost relief. However, operators are still carrying elevated fuel, labour, compliance, and infrastructure costs – and that gap is commercially dangerous.

To protect your margins now and future proof your operations for either outcome, you need to set your plan in place now. Proactively communicate with customers, explaining what has improved, what has not, and what they can also do on their end to reduce cost. Do not wait for the invoice to be the first conversation. Check out the operator’s playbook below for your steps this week. 

The operator playbook for the next seven days

1. Do not unwind your fuel surcharge on hope alone. If a deal is signed, plan for gradual relief over months. If it is not, plan for continued volatility. Build pricing that works across the range and adjusts in both directions. 

2. Check your RTCCO compliance. The review hearing on May 25 means scrutiny is increasing. Make sure your systems can produce the fortnightly cost recovery evidence the order requires. If you have existing rise-and-fall clauses, verify they meet the order's minimum standard — do not assume.

3. Watch the structural shifts. FedEx Freight starts trading June 1. Intermodal is gaining share. Early peak season is arriving. These are not distractions from the fuel crisis. They are the competitive landscape that will exist when the fuel crisis eventually eases. The operators paying attention to both will come out of this period strongest.

Let’s dive into the headlines shaping logistics this week. 

The RTCCO review — from emergency order to tested regulation

In Australia, the Fair Work Commission held its first formal review hearing on May 25 for the Road Transport Contractual Chain Order (RTCCO) — the emergency rule requiring businesses at the top of transport supply chains to adjust the rates they pay carriers every fortnight to account for rising diesel costs.

The RTCCO has now been live for five weeks. It is legally binding, it overrides existing contracts, and it came into force on 21 April 2026 as an emergency measure in response to fuel price increases driven by the Hormuz crisis.

The hearing matters because it marks a transition from crisis response to regulatory reality. The questions being raised in front of the Commission are real and specific:

• Construction companies are asking how the order applies when transport is bundled into a broader building contract.
• Councils are asking whether waste collection and materials haulage fall under the order.
• Small operators are asking whether existing rise-and-fall clauses already satisfy the requirements — or whether something additional is needed.

The Commission's response to these questions will shape how the RTCCO evolves. And here is the broader lesson for operators everywhere, not just in Australia: emergency regulation has a habit of becoming permanent regulation. The fortnightly fuel adjustment cadence this order creates may well outlast the crisis that triggered it.

For Australian operators, the practical action is straightforward. 

• If you are a primary party under the order, you should already have a system for producing fortnightly fuel cost evidence. 
• If you do not, the review hearing will not give you a grace period — it will sharpen expectations.

The operators who built the process early are compliant. The ones who waited are now scrambling.

Structural shifts are not waiting for the crisis to end

Three things are happening in the background right now that will reshape the competitive landscape regardless of what happens in Hormuz.

1. FedEx Freight goes independent

FedEx Freight begins trading as a standalone company on June 1 on the NYSE under ticker FDXF. It is the largest LTL carrier in North America — an $8.7 billion revenue business that has been operating inside a parcel company for 25 years.

As a standalone, it will be competing purely on freight merit for the first time, with its own board, salesforce, and technology investment decisions. 

For 3PLs and transport operators, this is worth watching closely. 

• A focused, well-capitalised LTL carrier entering the market with a sharp technology agenda and a clear appetite for mid-market customers changes the competitive conversation.
  
  

2. Intermodal is gaining share — and the window is still open

AAR reported intermodal volumes up 7.3% year-on-year for the week ending May 16. The mode-shift window we have been tracking — where intermodal pricing lags trucking by three to six months — is still open.

Customers who shift freight onto rail or intermodal now get a cost advantage for the next few months before intermodal pricing catches up. That is a practical opportunity for operators who can offer customers a mode-shift option.

3. Early peak season is arriving

An early peak season is getting underway on ocean trades, with extra vessels being deployed and rates beginning to climb. The seasonal pattern that everyone planned around before the crisis may not apply this year. Importers and fulfilment operators need to plan further ahead for container bookings and warehouse receiving capacity.

The operators who will be strongest in six months are the ones paying attention to these structural shifts while also managing the fuel crisis. Both matter. Neither can wait.

What to watch this week

• Whether the Iran deal materialises or breaks down — Brent Crude will react within hours to any development.
• Fair Work Commission response to the RTCCO hearing and any clarifications to scope.
• FedEx Freight first day of trading on June 1 under ticker FDXF.
• Intermodal pricing as it starts to close the gap with trucking rates.

FAQ

Q: Is the Iran deal confirmed? 

A: The Iran deal is not confirmed. Trump said it is "largely negotiated" and will be announced shortly — but Iran's state media immediately contested that characterisation, calling it incomplete. A first phase memorandum of understanding is expected, with broader nuclear talks to follow over 30–60 days. Key issues remain unresolved.

Q: If the Iran deal is signed, will fuel costs drop immediately? 

A: Fuel costs will not drop immediately even if a deal is signed. Clearing mines from the Strait, repositioning stranded ships, and rebuilding insurance confidence for tanker voyages takes months. Operators should plan for gradual relief over 6–12 months in the best case — not an overnight normalisation.

Q: What is the RTCCO and who does it apply to? 

A: The RTCCO (Road Transport Contractual Chain Order – Fuel Cost Recovery 2026) is a legally binding order made by the Fair Work Commission requiring businesses at the top of road transport supply chains to adjust rates paid to carriers at least fortnightly to account for rising diesel costs. It applies from 21 April 2026 and overrides existing contracts that do not meet its minimum requirements.

Q: Does the RTCCO apply to construction companies and councils? 

A: Whether the RTCCO applies to construction companies and councils depends on how transport is embedded in their contracts. Construction contracts where transport is bundled into broader delivery arrangements, and council contracts covering waste collection and materials haulage, are among the interpretation questions raised at the May 25 review hearing. The Commission's clarifications following the hearing will be important to monitor.

Q: What does FedEx Freight going independent mean for mid-market operators? 

A: FedEx Freight going independent means the largest LTL carrier in North America is now competing purely on freight merit for the first time — with its own technology agenda, salesforce, and capital allocation focused entirely on freight. Mid-market operators who overlap with FedEx Freight's target customer profile should pay close attention to pricing, service, and technology changes in the coming months.

Q: How can operators take advantage of the intermodal pricing window? 

A: The intermodal pricing window remains open because intermodal rates typically lag trucking by three to six months. Operators who can offer customers a mode-shift option — whether rail, intermodal, or a different service configuration — can potentially protect customer margins while strengthening the relationship. The window will close as intermodal pricing catches up, so the opportunity is time-bound.