This week in logistics, the Strait of Hormuz went from blockade to live fire. Amazon opened its entire logistics network to any business on earth. And Q1 earnings confirmed what a lot of operators have already been feeling — freight rates are up, but it's fuel and supply pressure doing the work, not a surge in demand. The question most people are still asking is when does this settle down. The more useful question is what does your operation look like if it doesn't?

— TL;DR — The short version

• The Hormuz fuel crisis has moved from economic pressure to kinetic military exchange.
• Amazon just made every 3PL + transport operator ask where they actually compete.
• The freight upcycle is confirmed — but it's supply-driven, which makes it fragile.
• Every major parcel carrier globally now carries an active fuel surcharge simultaneously, for the first time ever.
• 70% of Australian operators cannot sustain current operations beyond six months without a change.
• The operators doing well right now are not waiting for things to settle. They are planning for the current operating landscape to continue.

A lot has happened in the last two weeks — but underneath the headlines, the story for operators is the same one we've been tracking all year. Costs are stacking. Margins are tighter. And the market is finding gaps in operations that weren't obvious six months ago. What changed this fortnight is that the pressure got louder, and in one case — Amazon — the competitive landscape shifted in a way that every 3PL needs to pay attention to.

The crisis has hardened — what does that mean for planning?

For the last several episodes, we've tracked how the Hormuz situation has progressed — from blockade, to surcharges, to fuel supply stress, to government intervention. What changed in the last fortnight is that it moved from economic coercion into active military exchange.

• The US launched Operation Project Freedom to escort neutral ships out of the strait. Iran responded with missiles, drones, and small boats targeting US Navy ships and protected commercial vessels. 
• Brent crude surged sharply, and the IEA has called this the largest supply disruption in history. Goldman Sachs has described the standoff as maritime trench warfare, with both sides betting the other will blink first.

For operators, the planning implications are uncomfortable but straightforward:

• Every fuel model built on pre-February assumptions is now structurally wrong.
• Every scenario that includes fuel normalising by Q3 needs to be retired.
• The question is no longer when does this end — it's what does my operation look like if it doesn't end for another 12 months?

What's happening in Australia and New Zealand

The supply picture has stabilised, but the cost picture has not.

In Australia:

• The government has secured significant volumes of additional diesel and jet fuel under emergency powers.
• Station outages have eased from their peak, but diesel prices remain elevated.
• A NatRoad survey found 70% of operators cannot sustain current operations beyond six months without a change.
• Major parcel carriers have sharply increased their fuel surcharges in response.

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In New Zealand:

• Diesel has overtaken petrol at the pump for the first time ever.
• The government rejected a fuel excise cut in favour of other relief measures.
• Additional fuel storage infrastructure is being built to improve reserve capacity.

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Both countries are also making longer-term infrastructure commitments worth watching:

• Western Australia committed significant funding to freight links for the future Westport container terminal.
• Dnata invested in the Western Sydney International Freight Terminal.
• New Zealand opened a Christchurch rail hub and launched the Taranaki Connect regional freight hub to reduce empty container movements.

These aren't overnight changes — but they are demand signals. They tell you where governments and logistics players expect freight to move.

Amazon just changed the competitive landscape for every 3PL

On May 4, Amazon launched Supply Chain Services — opening its entire logistics network to any business in any industry. Not just Amazon marketplace sellers. Any business from healthcare, to automotive, manufacturing, and retail.

The offering bundles:

• Warehousing + fulfilment
• Freight forwarding
• Customs brokerage
• Transport + last-mile delivery

All in a single platform, backed by more than 200 fulfilment centres, 80,000+ trailers, 24,000 intermodal containers, and 100 aircrafts. The market reaction was immediate — major carriers fell sharply on the announcement, with analysts describing it as a structural warning shot.

For mid-market operators, the question is not whether Amazon is now a competitor. They have been a competitor for years. The question is where will they compete, and where will they not?

• Amazon's advantage: 
  
  • Standardisation
  • Density
  • Data at scale.
• The operators advantage: 
  
  • Specialisation
  • Regional density
  • Customer relationships
  • Speed of onboarding
  • The ability to handle complex non-standard freight

In our podcast episode last week with CartonCloud VP of Operations Scott Murray, he put it best: the best operators right now are doubling down on what they're good at and being more selective about the work they take on. That advice just became the most important strategic principle in the industry.

Know what you're good at. Know who your best customers are. Compete where your service complexity, your relationships, and your local knowledge make you irreplaceable.

The freight upcycle is real

Q1 earnings across rail, trucking, and logistics technology were fairly strong — CSX operating income up 20%, J.B. Hunt hit record intermodal volumes, and Union Pacific posted its best-ever first quarter operating ratio. But the upcycle is being driven by supply-side contraction, not demand growth:

• Carrier exits and bankruptcies pulling capacity out of the market
• Compliance crackdowns reducing usable capacity
• Fuel economics forcing trucks off the road — tender rejection rates hit 14.4% in late April

That pressure is showing up everywhere. For the first time ever, every major parcel carrier across multiple geographies is running an active fuel surcharge simultaneously — UPS, FedEx, and Amazon FBA in North America, USPS running its first-ever fuel surcharge, and Australia Post and StarTrack both sharply higher. If you're running fulfilment or e-commerce logistics and haven't updated your customer pricing to reflect this, you are subsidising every shipment.

On the other hand, intermodal pricing currently lags trucking by three to six months, which creates a window right now. Operators who can offer customers options — the fastest, cheapest, and most reliable — are having a better conversation. That's what ultimately will turn a provider into a long-term logistics partner.

Overall, my recommendation is this: ride the rate wave, but don't confuse it for permanent demand. Offer alternatives and fix your cost structure while conditions allow.
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The Operator Playbook for This Week

1. Stress-test your fuel model against $110–$130 Brent oil.

The range of plausible outcomes has widened dramatically. Run your margins against both a sustained high-oil scenario and a ceasefire scenario. If your business does not work in both:

• Identify where fuel exposure is highest across your cost structure.
• Fix the cost side before the revenue side changes.

2. Map your competitive exposure to Amazon.

Look at where Amazon is most likely to compete directly with you, and where they are not:

• Where Amazon has density and you don't — consider what work is worth defending.
• Where you have specialisation, relationships, and service complexity — protect those customers hard.
• And most importantly: double down on what you're good at.

3. Connect your systems to crisis infrastructure. 

Use mechanisms such as the Fair Work fortnightly order, CBP refund portal, and the USPS fuel surcharge to help recover your costs. It’s important to note here that in order to be effective, they all require your data to be clean, with timely documentation and system integration.

If your admin infrastructure can't produce fortnightly cost-recovery evidence or clean data exports, you are leaving margin on the table.

What We're Watching Next Week

• Whether Operation Project Freedom escalates or de-escalates in the strait (which is the key variable for fuel).
• Operator and shipper reactions to Amazon Supply Chain Services over the next 7–14 days.
• USMCA negotiation developments, with the first formal US–Mexico round and July 1 review deadline approaching.
• Australia and New Zealand diesel prices — the brief dip has likely ended with Brent back above $110.

Key takeaways

• The Hormuz crisis has moved from disruption to a permanent operating environment. Plan accordingly.
• Amazon Supply Chain Services is not a future threat — it is a live competitive reality. Know where you win.
• The freight upcycle is real but fragile. A supply-driven cycle can reverse faster than a demand-driven one.
• Parcel cost baselines have permanently shifted upward across every major carrier simultaneously.
• Admin quality and system integration are now directly tied to margin recovery, not just compliance.

Want to know more?

Listen to Episode 10 of This Week in Logistics on Spotify or Apple Podcasts to hear the complete breakdown.

See you next week!

Post by Shaun Hagen, CEO CartonCloud.

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FAQ

Q: What is Amazon Supply Chain Services and why does it matter for 3PLs? 

A: Amazon Supply Chain Services is a new offering that opens Amazon's full logistics network — warehousing, freight forwarding, customs brokerage, transport, and last-mile delivery — to any business in any industry. It matters for Third Party Logistics providers because it introduces a well-resourced competitor with significant scale advantages on standardised freight, making specialisation and customer relationships more important than ever.

Q: Why is the Strait of Hormuz disruption affecting logistics operators in Australia and New Zealand? 

A: The Strait of Hormuz disruption affects Australian and New Zealand operators because both countries rely heavily on refined fuel imported from Asian refineries that depend on crude oil transiting the strait. Supply constraints upstream flow directly into local diesel prices, reserve levels, and surcharge structures/ fuel levies.

Q: Is the current freight upcycle sustainable? 

A: The current freight upcycle is real but fragile, because it is being driven by supply-side contraction — carrier exits, fuel economics, and compliance crackdowns — rather than genuine demand growth. That means it can reverse faster than a demand-led cycle if fuel moderates or capacity re-enters the market.

Q: What should operators do if their fuel surcharge models are out of date? 

A: Operators with outdated fuel surcharge models should stress-test their margins against a range of scenarios, review all carrier pass-through costs across ocean, inland, and fulfilment, and update customer pricing immediately. Any model built on pre-February 2026 assumptions is likely underestimating true cost to serve.

Q: Why are intermodal options worth considering right now? 

A: Intermodal options are worth considering because intermodal pricing typically lags trucking by three to six months, creating a cost advantage for operators willing to offer mode-shift alternatives. Offering customers a choice between speed, cost, and reliability moves an operator from order-taker to logistics partner.

Q: What is the Fair Work Commission's fortnightly fuel order and who does it affect? 

A: The Fair Work Commission's Road Transport Contractual Chain Order legally requires businesses at the top of the supply chain in Australia to update the rates they pay to transport operators every fortnight to account for diesel price movements. It affects any Australian 3PL, transport buyer, or forwarder and requires systems capable of producing fortnightly cost-recovery evidence.