CartonCloud Unboxed Webinar: Unpacking the 2026 Logistics Index

Welcome, everyone. I'm Shaun Hagen, CEO of CartonCloud, joined by Javier Hernandez, Account Executive on our North American team. Over the next 30 minutes, we're going to take this year's CartonCloud Logistics Index and turn it into three moves for getting through peak and planning into next year. We do have Q&A open, so please drop your questions in the chat as they come up — we'll try to keep the last five minutes for them. With that, let's jump in.

Thanks, everyone, for joining today. What we'll run through is a quick recap for anyone who hasn't had a chance to read the report yet, and then the three moves: using this peak to build next year's rate case, using this peak to know your utilization number and the interesting insights the report found around capacity, and then move number three — looking at what customers expect, what the report told us, and what to change now versus in the new year once we're through peak. We'll do a bit of recap and then, as I said, leave time for Q&A.

So, jumping into the report itself: this is the 10th time we've run the CCLI, and this time it's been run independently by a group called Insights Exchange. This year they spoke to 393 warehouse and transport operators across Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the US, back in July and August. So the one thing I'll make really clear is the data was collected in July and August — we're obviously talking to you here about heading into peak, so some of those trends may have shifted since then. One quick note: if you've followed this report before, we've slightly tweaked how the score is worked out this year, but we've also recalculated the previous years the same way, so you'll see that in the report. All the trends we talk about hold, but if you're particularly diligent and remember an old number from a previous report, it may not exactly line up.

So, talking about the headline number: 165. That doesn't necessarily mean much on its own, so I'll explain how we calculate it and where it comes from. It's a score out of 200, where 100 is neutral and anything above 100 means operators are feeling more positive than negative. 165 is comfortably positive, and I think what's relevant is it's roughly where it's been in previous years. It's not as high as we saw in 2022, when there were a lot of tailwinds behind the logistics industry, but it's also better than 2021, when there was even more uncertainty about the future and what the outlook might be for logistics.

It's fundamentally built from three questions: how you feel about the economy, how you feel about growth in your own business, and whether you're planning to hire. Every year so far, the trend has been that operators feel a lot better about their own business than about the economy, and this year it's 176 for sentiment about their own business and 154 for the economy — which I think is a pretty human response. We can control our own businesses, but we can't control the economy, and the last six to twelve months have made that pretty evident.

But what I think makes the optimism a bit remarkable is the pressure sitting underneath it: 89% of operators told us their costs went up over the last year — that's nine in ten — and 79% have had to put their own rates up to cover it. So this isn't an industry that's had an easy year — that's not going to be news to anyone on this call. It's an industry that's had a tough year, and I think it's pleasing that it still backs itself.

So the headline number does hide something, which is what we also segmented by size. If you're a smaller operator with 49 or fewer staff, your sentiment index is actually sitting a little lower, at 142. The larger operators are quite a bit higher, at 187 — a fairly significant 45-point gap, and I think it's one of the real stories of this year's report. Really importantly, it's not that small operators are down on their own business growth — their scores are right up there with all the other size cohorts. Where they drop off is how they feel about the economy and about hiring, so it's nervousness about what's around them, not doubt about what they can do.

While size explains a lot of the gap, one thing to be honest about with the data is it can't fully separate size from the habits of the operators. But the more confident operators do tend to have a few habits in common, and none of them need 200 staff — that's really what we're going to spend the next 20 to 25 minutes on.

So, three moves: rates, capacity, and what customers now expect. Let's start with the one everyone's feeling — rates. Almost nine in ten operators said costs went up, so what did they actually do about it? One of the things that came out of the report is there isn't a single answer. Most operators — about 59% — run a mix of standard and custom rates with their customers, and about half have a proper rate card they review on a schedule. 41% negotiate case by case, and 42% only move their rates when their costs move. About a third of respondents just absorb fuel costs. People could pick more than one option, which is why it adds up to more than 100%.

I think the most interesting breakdown is looking at how many in each group expect a good next six months: structured rates, 88%; reactive, 87%; case by case, 85%; and the ones absorbing fuel costs drop significantly, down to 78%. What surprised me is that reactive responses to rate changes basically scored the same as, or slightly better than, periodic reviews. So the lesson here is you don't necessarily need a beautifully designed rate card or an established cadence — you just need to do something. The report is careful to say this is a link, not proof, but the pattern is pretty clear: absorbing your costs is just a decision, and it's usually the most expensive one.

This is hardest for smaller operators, who don't have as much room for error — and we saw that come up in the data, where only 38% of small operators had a structured rate card, against 61% for the largest operators, which isn't especially surprising. One other thing that came out of the data is that regionally, North America was well ahead when it came to structured rates — 59% were reviewed on a schedule, versus 40% in Australia and New Zealand, which does match what we see across our two operations. I do have a bit of a theory on the Australia and New Zealand side: it's a smaller market where relationships go back a long way, and a lot of deals have been done on a handshake, or on rates that have been inherited, so putting up rates can feel more personal. The report also shows that ANZ operators are more worried about demand next year — if you think work might dry up, you're a lot less likely to push on price. I get it, but I think that's exactly why knowing your numbers matters most.

On that — one of the North American 3PLs in the survey put it pretty simply: renegotiating with customers over fees had been complicated, and a lot of their customers couldn't absorb that. Coming from the 3PL world, rate increases or surcharges were always, to put it lightly, fun conversations — especially for e-commerce customers, who typically have shipping costs baked into the retail price if it's free shipping, so it always felt like a "it's not you, it's me" call, even though it was most definitely the carriers — we were just the middlemen.

So what would you actually do about this? I'd encourage everyone who hasn't already read the report to do so — it's one of the more interesting angles in it. Let's be honest: most of you are locked into your rates for peak. Nobody's repricing two weeks out from Black Friday or the Christmas rush, and I wouldn't try if I were you. But the peak period you're about to run into is the best data you'll get all year, because it's the one time all your real costs show up at once.

I think there are three things we'd recommend. First, use the opportunity to track what peak actually costs you over time — labor hire, extra trucks, fuel, express surcharges — by customer if you can, even roughly, even just in a spreadsheet. Capture as much data as you can over this period, because it will help you a lot going into next year. Second, compare that to what you're actually billing. This is the time of year we see the most rush orders, exceptions and returns, and they all spike now — they can be the first things that slip through when everyone's flat out. When you miss an accessorial or ad hoc charge, this is the time it catches you out. Peak is where you can make the most money all year; it's also where margin can quietly walk out the door if nobody's watching, so spend the extra time to double-check that the work happening matches what's being billed. And third: what's the carrier bill that actually turns up in January? This is something we see at end of year, time and again — corrections for shipping sent this month can land well after the fact. In North America that can be dimensional weight; in Australia it's freight adjustments — same thing, same timing.

That's really telling you two things: what to charge next year, and which habits on the floor are costing you. And if you don't have a rate card, that's fine — just gather the peak numbers for your top five customers now, and that becomes your starting point in January, because the report puts fair, transparent pricing at the center of trust with your customers, and the data makes those conversations a lot easier going into next year. Honestly, in the US a lot of carriers reconcile those invoices a bit later on too, so using that data, those conversations are a lot easier to have ahead of time — just giving everybody a heads-up. If you're planning on building a rate card and don't have one, a cost-plus-margin model works really well, because instead of a flat fee across the board, it gives you a bit of breathing room if unexpected surcharges come in.

So that's the first move, focused on what you charge. On the other side of the same coin is what you've actually got to sell — your space, your trucks, your people. That's move number two, and that's where the data threw up something I didn't expect. You'd think spare capacity means more room to grow and more confidence — but the data said the opposite.

This one definitely surprised me when I first read it. Just remember this report was run a couple of months ago, because I strongly suspect some of that capacity has been absorbed as we get into peak. When we asked this in July and August, operators on average told us they were using 77% of their capacity — shelves, trucks and people — with roughly a quarter to spare. It's also worth noting that July and August is straight after end of financial year in Australia, which can be one of the quieter stretches, and in North America it's around the end of the summer period, before peak builds nicely — so if 77% sounds low, that's probably why. It's an everyday number, not a peak number.

But here's the surprising bit: small operators have the most room, sitting at 73% utilization, while the largest are at 81%. But confidence in how the business will perform over the next six to twelve months goes the other way — 71% of small operators expect a good six months, versus 90% for the largest, stepping up through every size band in between.

I think the report points to bigger operators tending to be tighter on tracking their utilization and reviewing their rates, and that shows up in how they feel. My own read is a bit simpler: some of that spare room is probably work that just isn't there yet, but space you can't fill isn't just an opportunity cost — an empty rack still costs you rent and overhead. Spare capacity on its own isn't an opportunity; it becomes one when you actually know where it is, what it's costing you, and how you want to capitalize on it.

So let's make it practical, not just numbers on a board. Whether you're nearly full or have room, peak gives you the truest utilization number you'll get all year — so take each case and work it back from there. If you're running near full: agree your priorities this week if you haven't already — which customers, which service levels you protect first when you get tight. You want that decision made in a meeting room, not on the floor at 6am when a truck's arrived. Second, log every bit of overflow — every after-hours run, every truck shift, every overflow storage bill — and note where labor was hardest to find, because skilled staff shortages came up in both regions this year. That's your case for adding capacity next year, with real numbers behind it. Third, keep an eye on quality — being full is only good if you're still delivering what you promised.

If you've got room, use peak to find your real number by site, by zone, by fleet — "about 70% full" isn't a plan. Think about what work you actually want in that space. Winning new customers and growing existing ones came out almost dead even as growth plans — 42% and 41% — but in my experience, growing with the customers you already have can be the faster, cheaper win, and it deepens the ties you've already built. I'd encourage you not to just discount to fill spare space — spare space isn't a reason to drop your price. That's really where move one and move two meet: capacity and rates are, in the end, the same conversation, so you might as well have it with all your customers at once.

On to move number three. Here's what customers are asking operators for: lower rates are still number one, at 39%. But right below it, no surprise, is real-time tracking and visibility, then faster turnaround, direct system integrations, greater customisation, faster onboarding and proactive communication.

I think the big reason real-time tracking and visibility sits so close to the top is just the world we live in now — customers expect the kind of tracking you get from a food delivery app, where you can track your order down the road. One North American 1PL in the survey said they want live visibility on every shipment so their team isn't stuck on the phone all day, and that reduces a lot of manual overhead, which is becoming more of an expectation than a nice-to-have. That's the shift we've seen over the last couple of months, as e-commerce-level expectations bleed into every part of logistics. Price still wins the first conversation, but increasingly, visibility and responsiveness are what keep the customer and help you differentiate. In ANZ especially, that visibility is what gets asked for on a tender, and then quietly becomes the reason a customer stays or leaves down the track.

On to some technology and buzzwords — AI is obviously a trending topic across the board, and we put some questions about it in the report this year. It was interesting to see some trends emerge around the technology questions in the CCLI over the years. Pleasingly, 51% of operators are using AI for everyday things — emails, summaries, that sort of thing — what the report calls "trialists." Around one in five respondents have gone further and actually built it into how they run the operation, with the most common use cases being data analysis and customer service. The interesting number is the step between those two: 77% of trialists expect a good six months, whereas operators who've built AI in go up to 92% — a 15-point gap. One caveat worth calling out is that the operators who've built it in do tend to be bigger, and bigger operators are more confident anyway, so some of that gap may relate to size, but it does suggest operators are seeing a real payoff from moving AI into the actual work, not just experimenting with it. Most people are paying for a system as it is, so they don't necessarily want to build it themselves — 32% said they'd rather their existing software provider build it in and embed it for them, but they'd definitely use it. And obviously, full disclosure: most of you on the call are CartonCloud customers, so take that one how you like it — we are working on it and doing our best.

So, what now — the now versus January. For peak itself, don't start a big system change right now; I wouldn't say it's too late, but really just ride it out. As you're going through it, be a little more proactive: agree how and when your customers hear about delays — same day, or an email well ahead of time — because it costs nothing, and communication is always key. Use the visibility you already have — existing dashboards, tracking statuses, email notifications — to your advantage, and log the integrations that cause the most pain. You might not notice it during the year, but when everything's at full capacity, keep track of which ones gave you the most grief through peak, so once you roll into January you've got a plan to optimise, fix, or find a different solution.

Once the dust settles a little past January, it might be time to look at a new system or WMS — I'm obviously not biased, being on the sales team — or bigger integration projects to get rid of manual entries and CSVs. And again, on AI: is there a way to bring it into your current operations? It doesn't have to be full-blown — it could be as simple as scrubbing data and making sure it's clean and ready for upload. And then, ultimately, write it down — keep a little journal of what peak taught you about yourself and about the operation, what the pain points were in December, and what worked best. Get ready for a briefing in January and hit the ground running for 2027. It's a great time to learn what's working and what's breaking; it's probably a bad time to completely overhaul anything, though that doesn't mean you can't tweak at the edges.

So those are the three moves. If you take one thing away: rates — check what peak really costs and compare it to your bill, and that gives you ammunition for next year. Capacity — use this peak to really find your utilization. And customers and systems — keep your customers informed, communication is key, write down the integration pain points, and on the journaling side, be kind to yourself. Things get crazy, but take the wins and the losses and learn from them.

Now I'm going to try and share a tool with you. If you want to know where you actually sit against operators like you, I'd encourage you, after this, to go to benchmark.cartoncloud.com. Even if you didn't take the survey, you can now answer the same questions the 393 operators answered and see exactly where you sit, and this tool is free. It's a really interesting way to engage with the report, whether you answered it or not. From this page you can download the full report — we've done our best to summarise the data and give you actionable recommendations, but there are additional insights in there worth reading. You can also segment the data by a range of factors — whether you're a 1PL or 3PL, warehouse, transport or both, by region and by business size — and go through each question and answer it as you go. The tool then shows you how you compare with your chosen cohort: your view of the economic outlook, your growth potential, whether you expect a good next six months, and how that compares to other businesses in your size, stage and region. It gives you a personalised view of where you sit against the index — and again, this is about the report and the industry, not about CartonCloud. Once you've filled it in, down the bottom you can create your own summary and download a PDF, with comparisons and insights into how you stack up against your cohort — what the industry's seeing that you're not, and what you're seeing that the industry isn't — to help you make the best decisions for a successful 2027.

One more thing on AI: the tool also has the ability to interact with the report through our AI assistant, Fletch, which you'll have seen across the website and knowledge base and will be in-app soon, letting you interact with the same insights and data in plain language. So: benchmark.cartoncloud.com — read the full report, but also interact with the page and see how you compare against the industry.

All right — that's everything we have in terms of the presentation. We'll jump into any questions now.

"We're a small 3PL — how realistic is it for us to have a structured, regular rate card review with our customers?"

It's a simple question, and we have the privilege of working with a lot of small operators across both regions, and it's not uncommon that they don't have a formal, structured one. But it's a really easy place to start and get ahead — over the next couple of weeks and months you have the opportunity to track what those costs look like and where revenue is sitting, then go into the new year with the data and information you need. I'd also encourage you to jump on the benchmarking tool — there are insights in the report around storage charging and other rate information, so you can see how you compare to others in your cohort.

"Does the report break down the results by industry segment — e.g. FMCG versus industrials?"

It doesn't this year — great question, and I appreciate you jumping in. With 393 respondents, we've tried to make the segmentation into cohorts that are meaningful — big enough to give reliable insights, without becoming too noisy. It's something we're regularly looking at, because I think that's one of the most useful data sets for operators — how they compare against their particular vertical. Not this year, but a great question, and one we'll keep in mind for future years.

"Our customers push back every time we raise rates — what works?"

Coming from the 3PL world, it's always a rough conversation, and as I mentioned, communication is key. The report points to fairness and transparency as what builds trust, so keep it to a short explanation tied to real cost drivers — labor went up, storage went up — tie it to cost of living, inflation, whatever it is, and just be transparent. It's not an easy conversation, especially with customers you've had for a long time, so stay on top of it, because if you go years without a rate increase and then suddenly need a 50% jump, that hurts a lot more. Communicate throughout the year as much as you can, so it's expected rather than a full-on shock.

That's all the questions we had — thank you to everyone for spending this half hour with us. As I said at the start, the industry is optimistic, but that confidence isn't necessarily shared evenly. What we see in the data is that the operators who feel best about the next six months tend to have their rates, their capacity, and their customer communications in order. None of that needs a big project — it needs good notes, insights and data through peak, a few clear decisions in the new year, and the understanding that confidence might track size, but the habits behind it definitely don't.

We'll send the recording out to everyone who registered, along with a link to the full report and the benchmarking tool. And if you want to talk about your own operation, reach out to your CartonCloud team. Good luck with peak, everyone — and be kind to yourselves.